Following the US military withdrawal from Afghanistan, there has been an intensification of conflict and competition between various militant groups seeking to establish influence and dominance. In particular, ISIS and Al Qaeda seek to take advantage of the security vacuum to reposition themselves. This is manifesting in a dual conflict, one between the two organizations, and another between ISIS and the Taliban. This raises questions regarding the possible paths of this conflict and its potential repercussions at the regional level, especially on Arab countries.

Increased Activity

With US military withdrawal from Afghanistan, which began on on May 1, 2021, the scope of ISIS terrorist operations expanded. It undertook 83 terrorist attacks between May 1^st and July 9^th , resulting in nearly 377 casualties, deaths and injuries, among Afghan security forces and the Taliban. This marks the highest level of activity for the group, as compared to the same period last year. It signals the threat of continued escalation of ISIS activity, as it seeks to strengthen its position in Afghanistan.

On the other hand, a surprising divergence of views between Al Qaeda and the Taliban is emerging, as a result of the peace agreement signed by the latter with the United States on February 29, 2020. This prompted an organizational restructure by Al-Qaeda and an escalation of its activity in Afghanistan, although not on the same scale as ISIS. It is therefore expected that both ISIS and Al Qaeda will continue to escalate their activities in the coming period.

 Motives for Escalation

The two organizations seek to achieve a number of goals by expanding the scope of their activity and positioning inside Afghanistan:

1. The search for funding: ISIS and Al Qaeda may be seeking to gain the attention of sponsors who could provide significant funds, especially as the two organizations have lost their sources of self-financing due to military strikes and defeats they suffered in the past period.
2. Ideological differences: There are major doctrinal and ideological differences between these organizations. ISIS describes Al Qaeda as deviants and the Taliban as apostates. The same is true of Al Qaeda and the Taliban, which describe ISIS as Kharijites. This was clearly reflected in the message published by ISIS in issue 291 of the Al-Naba newspaper, on June 17, entitled “The American withdrawal from Khorasan”. In the piece, the organization indicated it would move to raise its level of operations against the Taliban, in parallel with issuing instructions to its members to work on expanding the organization’s geographical spread. ISIS’ thereby hopes to consolidate its influence and position itself as the leading militant organization in Afghanistan.
   In other words, through its restructuring and increased activity in Afghanistan, ISIS is striving towards what can be called a jihadist takeover. This is done through expanding the scope of terrorist operations and exploiting the decline in Al-Qaeda activity and the Taliban’s involvement in armed confrontations with government forces.
3. Recruitment: ISIS and Al-Qaeda’s recruitment capabilities have declined since 2019, due to their significant losses.  Al Qaeda has lost many of its top-ranking leaders, such as Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah, known as Abu Muhammad al-Masri in Tehran in early August 2020, and Abu Mohsen al-Masri, one of the most prominent leaders of the central organization, in October 2020. The same can be said for ISIS, whose members and followers significantly decreased in theperiod following its failure in Baghouz in March 2019.
   Consequently, the latest activity by the two groups in Afghanistan aims to help recruit more terrorist elements, by demonstrating their ability to survive despite all the blows and defeats they suffered.
4. Entrenching the “Khorasan Province”: The Khorasan Province represents ISIS’ Afghanistan branch, where it seeks to consolidate its influence, along with other temporary bases of operation in  Syria, Iraq and West Africa. ISIS seeks to control new geographical areas in Afghanistan, annexing them to the Khorasan Province, thereby strengthening and expanding the scope of the organization’s temporary central base. Consequently, Afghanistan ranked fourth in terms of number of operations the group carried out during the first half of this year.

Potential Consequences

The rise of ISIS’ influence and the possibility of the resumption of Al Qaeda activity in Afghanistan after US military withdrawal may result in a number of consequences to the region’s security and interests, in particularly for Arab countries. These include:

1. Strengthening Arab Branches: The two groups boast numerous branches in Arab countries, and their increased influence and activity in Afghanistan will be a source of strength for these branches, especially in countries such as Syria and Libya.
2. Facilitating Movement of Militants: Increased ISIS and Al Qaeda activity in Afghanistan may allow them to attract new members. This raises the prospect of transferring militants from Afghanistan to Arab countries. This will strain the latter, as they will once more have to deal with the destabilizing impact of returnees from conflict zones on their domestic security.
3. A Rise of “Lone wolves”: Increased ISIS and Al Qaeda activity in Afghanistan may incentivize individuals to carry out “lone wolf” terrorist operations in Arab countries and the region.

These developments indicate that Afghanistan is entering a new phase following US military withdrawal, which is likely to have adverse consequence for the region, and in particular, Arab countries.