As the US’ full withdrawal from Afghanistan approaches, the focus is shifting to Ankara’s proposal for Turkish forces to succeed US forces in Afghanistan, in light of American and international concerns of a possible security vacuum. It would appear Ankara has tried to align with Washington on this issue and overcome the escalating differences between the two countries in recent times, and is planning to play a role in  securing the Hamid Karzai Airport. Besides improving relations with Washington, Turkey’s military presence in Afghanistan can serve its own interests on various fronts, perhaps the most important of which is strengthening its regional influence and balancing the influence of a number of other regional powers.

A New Role

The possible Turkish role in Afghanistan in the post-US withdrawal phase is based on the idea of ​​filling the void. Washington wants Ankara to play a security and military role in Afghanistan as an alternative to its presence over the past 20 years.  NATO also hoped Turkey can fill the security vacuum left in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of foreign forces. While Turkey’s current military presence in Afghanistan is limited to a battalion of only about 500 soldiers engaged in non-combat missions, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg indicated that Turkey would play a key role in managing Kabul International Airport after the withdrawal of NATO forces.

There are concerns, from the United States and NATO, that the withdrawal of foreign forces, the halt in peace talks, and the Taliban’s military activity will lead to a full-blown civil war in Afghanistan that may restore the Taliban to power. On June 24, 2021, the Wall Street Journal published a report outlining the possibility of the collapse of the Afghan government within six months to a year following the US withdrawal, based on intelligence reports and military sources, as the Taliban continues its military advance and control over some areas in Afghanistan.

In this context, providing security at Afghanistan’s main airport, Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, is of utmost importance. The airport is Afghanistan’s main link to the outside world, as it is a landlocked country.

Turkish motives

Turkey’s desire to play a role in Afghanistan following the American withdrawal is driven by a number of factors, including:

1) Strengthening Turkey’s image: Turkey wants to enhance its international image through its involvement in Afghanistan. In her book Turkey: The Invention of Emerging Diplomacy, Jana Jabbour argues that Ankara is attempting to utilize mediation as a diplomatic tool  to strengthen its presence on the regional and international arenas. Turkey attempted to host an international peace conference on Afghanistan last April, but it was postponed due to the lack of participation by some parties to the Afghan crisis. In May, the spokesman for the Turkish Justice and Development Party, Omer Celik, announced his country’s readiness to participate in any mediation efforts to bring peace to Afghanistan.

 Turkey has also tried to use soft power tools to strengthen relations with Afghanistan. Over the past years, Turkey has worked to strengthen ties with the Uzbeks and Turkmens, who speak the Turkish language. It has also established a number of Turkish schools, scholarships, and staff training, and has advanced cooperation and support with the Afghan government in the military and security field.

2) Gaining Influence in Central Asia: Turkey is working to strengthen its presence in Central and South Asia. This was evident in the Turkish intervention in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and strengthening its relations with Pakistan.

In addition to the presence of Turkish-speaking peoples in this region, its importance for Ankara is also due to its richness in energy resources, which has been a notable priority in Turkish foreign policy in recent years. According to some estimates, Central Asian countries hold about 27% and 34% of oil and natural gas reserves, respectively. Through Afghanistan, Turkey can have a new foothold in Central Asia.

3) Improving Relations with Washington: Turkey aims to exploit the American need for its presence in Afghanistan to resolve the dispute over core issues between the two countries. At the forefront of these is Turkey’s purchase of advanced Russian S-400 missiles, as well as disagreements over the Syrian crisis, and issues regarding human rights, freedom, and opposition forces within Turkey.

In this context, Turkey’s presence in Afghanistan is seen as an attempt by Ankara to gain Washington’s support, overcome differences between the two countries, ease US sanctions imposed on Ankara, and attempt to improve relations with new US President Joe Biden.

4) Global Profile: Ankara is trying to stress the importance of its potential role in Afghanistan on a global level. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu stressed that operating and securing Kabul Airport is vital for the survival of diplomatic missions in the country. Turkey is hoping to garner the support of the Security Council and the international community to lend legitimacy to its involvement, gain regional and international attention, and strengthen Turkey’s presence and political influence. Afghanistan will become a vital card for Turkey within NATO.

Despite the interests Turkey is pursuing through its presence in Afghanistan, there are determinants that will govern Turkey’s presence in the Afghan arena and affect Ankara’s adoption of this decision, and the chances of its success or failure.

Factors Influencing Turkey’s Success

1) The Taliban’s position: The Taliban’s stance on Turkish presence in Afghanistan is one of the most important determinants of its feasibility. The presence of Turkish military forces in Afghanistan after foreign withdrawal without the consent of the Taliban will pose serious risks to Turkish soldiers on the ground. It is of note that the Taliban voiced its opposition to any foreign forces remaining in Afghanistan. Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shaheen stressed the necessity of Turkish withdrawal from Afghanistan along with international forces, as part of the February 2020 agreement. He noted that any  foreign forces would be considered as occupying forces, while also emphasizing the historical relations between Ankara and Kabul, and the Taliban’s quest for cooperation and strengthening relations with Turkey as a major Islamic country.

Ankara is seeking to resolve the Taliban situation through Pakistani and Qatari mediation, but its failure to obtain the approval of the Taliban makes its continued presence in Afghanistan after the withdrawal date, and the presence of its forces at Hamid Karzai Airport very costly and risky. The postponement of the International Peace Conference, which was scheduled to be held in Istanbul last April, due to the Taliban’s absence, indicates that changing the Taliban’s stance will be a difficult feat.

2) The government’s position: Turkey’s involvement in Afghanistan is welcomed by the Afghan government, both as part of the NATO forces and in the post-withdrawal phase. This was revealed by Afghan Foreign Minister Hanif Atmar after his meeting with his Turkish and Iranian counterparts on June 20, when he announced his support of Turkey’s offer to secure Kabul Airport and its readiness to maintain the airport’s high-level technological capabilities, facilities, and arrangements. This came within the framework of the agreement reached the three ministers at the meeting on cooperation in the peace process, economic issues, and security issues, including combating terrorism and preventing organized crime and illegal immigration.

3) US support: Turkish officials are in talks with Washington to obtain financial and logistical support, and Ankara has tied its presence in Afghanistan with the provision of this support. In comments to reporters after his meeting with US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the recent NATO summit in Brussels, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stressed the importance of US diplomatic, logistical, and financial support if Washington wanted to maintain Turkish presence in Afghanistan.

 Ankara’s Chances for Success

Turkey’s previous involvements qualify it to succeed American forces in Afghanistan, given Turkish forces in Afghanistan were not combative and did not previously engage in armed confrontations in the country as part of the NATO forces. Turkey emphasized that its involvement as a Muslim country in the NATO forces in Afghanistan aims to support stability and help the Afghan people. Some international powers believe that cultural and ideological factors can play a positive role in supporting peace in Afghanistan. Furthermore, Turkey maintains relatively good relations with Afghan forces, including the Taliban and the Afghan government, in addition to some noteworthy individuals such as Abdul Rashid Dostum.

 Turkey’s experience in Somalia, dealing with the Muslim Youth Movement, may be helpful in Afghanistan. With its largest foreign military base located in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, Turkey has undertaken major infrastructure projects in the country and managed both Mogadishu’s international airport and port. This is in addition to military cooperation and training of Somali forces. That said, the differences between the Afghan and Somali cases and the influence of the Taliban and the youth movement in each country are of note.

On the other hand, it appears that a number of countries are not pleased at the prospect of Turkish presence in Afghanistan. These include Russia, which considers the Central Asian region as its historical sphere of influence, and views Turkish presence in Afghanistan from the perspective of Turkish-American cooperation in the region. A spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry stated on June 17 that continued Turkish military presence in Afghanistan would violate the US-Taliban agreement on the withdrawal of foreign forces.

On the domestic level, Turkey’s opposition forces have rejected the idea of keeping Turkish forces in Afghanistan, arguing it will involve Turkish soldiers in an unresolved and risky confrontation with the Taliban. Some party leaders, such as Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the Republican People’s Party, and Meral Akşener, head of the Turkish İYİ Party, have refused to place Turkish soldiers in harm’s way for financial gain,  serving as mercenaries to protect American soldiers.

In short, Turkey has strong motivations to play a role in Afghanistan after US withdrawal, but there are several factors that could undermine its success there.