While Iran consistently engages in ongoing military maneuvers to demonstrate its military capabilities and communicate directly with relevant forces involved in regional and international crises, it is important to note that the military maneuvers conducted by the Iranian army starting from October 3 have gained significant significance and momentum. This is particularly evident in terms of their timing, the conducting party, and the geographical area in which they are executed.
The aforementioned maneuvers were executed utilizing a fleet of 200 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), with notable models including “Shamroush,” “Yasir,” “Sadiq,” “Belikan,” “Ababil 3,” “Ababil 4,” “Ababil 5,” “Kaman 12,” as well as “Yazdan,” “Muhajir 2,” and “Muhajir 6”. These operations encompassed a vast geographical expanse, as articulated by Habibullah Sayyari, the Assistant for Coordination Affairs in the Army, spanning from the southern regions of the Arabian Gulf and the Sea of Oman to the eastern, western, northern, and central territories of the country.
Several Goals for Iran to Achieve
Iran’s military maneuvers conducted were aimed at accomplishing numerous objectives, with the most notable ones being:
1- Demonstrating Military Might: Iran is demonstrating its military prowess in the realm of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) through these maneuvers, aiming to highlight its expertise and establish itself as a global leader in this domain. It has previously asserted that numerous countries worldwide have expressed interest in procuring Iranian drones. Reza Talaii, the spokesperson for the Iranian Defense Ministry, confirmed on August 26 that “several countries have formally requested to acquire Iranian drones,” including Western and European nations, while Tehran abstains from acquiring such UAVs.
2- Challenging Western Pressures: The action undertaken by Iran cannot be divorced from the pressures imposed by Western nations, owing to the expanding realm of discord between the two entities, particularly concerning the Iranian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) initiative. The magnitude of this disagreement intensified after the commencement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on February 24, 2022, as Western countries directly implicated Iran in extending military assistance to Russia through the provision of “Shahed 136” and “Muhajir 6” drones.
Iran’s persistent denial of these accusations, coupled with its assertion of neutrality in the ongoing conflict, is very clear. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian stated on September 3rd that discussions took place earlier this year between Iranian and Ukrainian military delegations. During these discussions, Iran requested Ukraine to furnish evidence substantiating its alleged military assistance to Russia, specifically through the provision of pilotless aircraft. The Minister emphasized that no such evidence was presented.
Nevertheless, Western nations persist on levying these allegations and have gone as far as to impose sanctions on Iran for its military backing of Russia. On July 20, they enacted measures to prohibit the provision of drone-related components and added certain individuals to their roster of sanctioned entities.
3- Escalations towards Israel: Iran’s persistent escalation towards Israel signifies its intention to convey direct messages regarding the efficacy of its drone program in effectively addressing the ongoing escalation. This escalation, which previously centered around the threat of employing ballistic missiles, has now expanded to encompass a broader range of tactics. On March 13, 2022, the Revolutionary Guard executed a targeted operation against an Israeli Mossad site located in northern Iraq. Subsequently, it authorized the armed militias loyal to it to issue similar threats toward Tel Aviv, mirroring the actions of the Lebanese Hezbollah. Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah of the Hezbollah organization had previously issued direct warnings to the Israeli government on September 2, emphasizing the potential consequences of any miscalculations. During his meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, Nasrallah asserted that if the Israelis were to initiate any actions resulting from a miscalculation, they would face a resolute response from the resistance. Furthermore, on the 12th of the same month, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant accused the Hezbollah party of establishing an airport with the support of Iran, thereby augmenting its capacity to launch attacks against Israel.
4- The Balance of Military Powers: The adjustment of the military balance in Iran has witnessed a remarkable increase in the role and influence of the Iranian army over the past three years. Notably, in addition to their frequent military maneuvers, they have gone beyond mere announcements of possessing a substantial arsenal of drones. On February 7, they unveiled an underground air base, which is believed to serve as a storage facility for fighters. This development has been associated with discussions during that time regarding Iran’s intention to secure a military agreement with Russia for the acquisition of Sukhoi 35 fighters. However, the prospects of finalizing this deal have diminished due to various factors.
The repercussions resulting from the absence of the former commander of the “Quds Force,” Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a military operation conducted by the United States of America on January 3, 2020, are closely intertwined with the dynamics at play. Soleimani held significant sway not only within the Revolutionary Guard but also in Iran as a whole, particularly within decision-making circles. This situation consistently undermined the role and influence of the army, relegating it to a subordinate position compared to the esteemed status enjoyed by the Revolutionary Guard.
5- Sending warnings to certain neighboring countries: The message appears to be specifically targeted at countries like Azerbaijan. Despite Iran’s strong desire to manage the escalating disputes with Azerbaijan in recent times, and its deliberate adoption of a non-oppositional stance during the renewed crisis with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, it is evident that Iran remains concerned about the significant progress in relations between Azerbaijan and Israel. Iran believes that this development could potentially pose a security threat and disrupt the military equilibrium in Syria, particularly near its borders.
Stable policy
Iran will persist in carrying out additional military exercises and implementing other escalatory measures across different domains in the upcoming phase. These actions indicate that Iran is pursuing a policy that remains relatively steady, despite the changes in the regional landscape over time, as well as ongoing endeavors to negotiate a new nuclear agreement with the United States of America.