On June 7th of this year, French President Emmanuel Macron made an announcement regarding the appointment of Jean-Yves Le Drian, a former Foreign Minister who served during Macron’s first presidential term. Le Drian, who had left his position one year ago, has been chosen as a special envoy to Lebanon. His primary responsibility will be to spearhead French initiatives aimed at resolving the political crisis in a country plagued by a lack of a president and economic collapse.
This decision aligns with France’s policy, which places great importance on Lebanon’s stability, unity, independence, and sovereignty. Additionally, it underscores Paris’ commitment to strengthening the capabilities and authority of the official Lebanese institutions across the nation.
Multiple Implications
There are several implications to the announcement of Le Drian’s appointment as a special envoy to Lebanon for the French president, which came a week before the twelfth session to elect a new president for Lebanon, which did not yield any significant results. The most notable implications are as follows:
- Interest in Resolving the Presidential Vacuum Crisis: Lebanon has been grappling with a prolonged presidential vacuum crisis since the term of former President Michel Aoun concluded in October 2022. This crisis persists as the parliament has failed to elect a new president over the course of twelve sessions, primarily due to the political obstacles arising from the intricate balances within the existing political system.
The twelfth session took place on June 14th and was marked by a deeply divided parliament split between two factions. The first camp, led by Hezbollah, declared its support for candidate Sleiman Frangieh, while the second camp consisted of Frangieh’s opponents, particularly Christian parties backing IMF official Jihad Azour. Nonetheless, the session concluded without either Frangieh or Azour securing enough votes for victory. In the initial vote, Azour received 59 out of 128 deputies’ votes, while Frangieh garnered 51 votes. However, these totals did not meet the required two-thirds majority for a first-round win. Subsequently, Hezbollah and its allies withdrew to hinder the quorum necessary for a second round, further complicating the process.
Paris is relying on Le Drian to facilitate a consensus among the Lebanese political factions, thus putting an end to the prolonged presidential vacuum crisis. This crisis has endured for approximately seven months and has further aggravated the country’s ongoing economic turmoil over the past four years. France’s objective is to achieve this resolution by successfully electing a new president. In anticipation of the twelfth session to select a new president, France issued a call on June 13th to seize the opportunity for the nation to overcome the political crisis that has plagued it since October of the previous year.
In line with the coordination between the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the special envoy to Lebanon appointed by the French president, the spokesperson for the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs has indicated that Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna will meet with Le Drian on June 16th. The purpose of this meeting is to receive an update on the latest developments in Le Drian’s communications with Lebanese officials, in order to ensure the continuity of the ministry’s efforts regarding this crucial matter for Paris.
- Changing the French Approach: The appointment of Le Drian as the French president’s special envoy to Lebanon, with a primary focus on resolving the presidential vacuum crisis, signifies a shift in France’s approach. This change becomes evident through statements made by the French Foreign Minister during her meeting with Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib on June 8th, on the sidelines of the ministerial meeting of the International Coalition to Counter ISIS in Riyadh. The French minister stated that France “does not have a candidate for the Lebanese presidency” and emphasized the importance of electing a new president amidst the challenging economic conditions faced by the Lebanese state.
These remarks reveal France’s desire to alter its strategy for resolving the ongoing political crisis in Lebanon. Previously, the approach involved a trade-off between supporting presidential candidate Sleiman Frangieh, who enjoys backing from Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, and appointing former diplomat Nawaf Salam as prime minister due to his strong ties to the international community.
However, according to multiple reports, Paris has encountered difficulty in persuading opposition forces, particularly Christian factions that backed candidate Jihad Azour in response to France’s support for Frangieh, to reconsider their rejection of Frangieh’s nomination. In light of this, Le Drian’s new approach will focus on the concept of a “consensus candidate.” This approach aims to build consensus among these forces in order to avoid further contention in the upcoming phase.
- Implementing Vital Economic Reforms: In the previous phase, France endeavored to leverage its longstanding influence in Lebanon to encourage the country’s political factions to reach a consensus on implementing crucial economic reforms. These reforms were seen as essential for Beirut to receive vital external assistance. Unfortunately, these efforts did not yield the desired results. As a result, Paris is placing its trust in Le Drian, a seasoned crisis management expert, to contribute towards finding an effective and consensus-driven solution. This solution aims to alleviate the dire impact of the economic crisis, which was further exacerbated by the devastating explosion at the Port of Beirut on August 4, 2020.
On June 8th, the International Monetary Fund issued a warning, highlighting the urgent need for Lebanon to promptly implement comprehensive economic reforms. These reforms are crucial for addressing the severe and escalating crisis that the economy has been grappling with for several years.
- Garnering Regional and International Support: The success of Paris in addressing Lebanon’s political and economic crises over the past four years hinges on the necessity of coordinating with regional and international powers involved in the Lebanese affairs. This coordination can help harmonize efforts aimed at achieving the desired objective, and it is a task that Le Drian will undertake. With his experience leading both the French Ministries of Defense and Foreign Affairs in successive French governments, Le Drian has been able to establish extensive networks of relationships at both the Arab and international levels. This qualification positions him to effectively engage with all stakeholders, whether they are international, regional, or local, in order to foster understandings that facilitate the election of a new president in Lebanon.
Undoubtedly, this step is closely tied to the evolving dynamics within the Middle East region, which has witnessed an improvement in relations among several major regional powers. Le Drian’s role will be crucial in navigating this new atmosphere and leveraging it to garner support from various actors involved in Lebanon’s political landscape.
A Fresh Start
The measures taken by President Emmanuel Macron to address the profound crises afflicting Lebanon, particularly in the aftermath of the devastating Beirut port explosion on August 4, 2020, have attracted significant attention from numerous stakeholders closely following developments within the Lebanese internal landscape. Macron has played a prominent role in efforts aimed at resolving the political crisis and mitigating the economic turmoil. His commitment to the cause was evident when he visited Beirut a mere two days after the explosion, providing both financial and developmental aid from France, while simultaneously exerting pressure on the Lebanese political elite to implement substantial reforms. Nevertheless, Macron has faced mounting pressures and criticisms due to the overall lack of progress in achieving these objectives thus far.
In light of these circumstances, the appointment of Le Drian as Macron’s special envoy to Lebanon reflects France’s determination to initiate a fresh diplomatic initiative to resolve the enduring presidential vacuum crisis in Lebanon. This decision serves as a potential turning point for the success of France’s involvement in Lebanon, following previous setbacks encountered since the tragic Beirut port explosion.