Ahead of the upcoming elections on May 14, the launch of advertising campaigns in Turkey coincided with the increasing political presence of the Turkish opposition and their expansion of coordination. According to some opinion polls, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the opposition candidate, has made progress over President Erdogan. This advantage can be attributed in part to the government’s inability to contain the economic crisis and their limited response to the Karaman Marash earthquake disaster. Additionally, the opposition has shown their ability to overcome their political or ideological differences.
However, this does not necessarily mean a decline in the ruling party’s chances. The government has started reconstruction procedures, which could positively impact their campaign. Furthermore, there are fears of the disintegration of the alliance due to the refusal of some members to approach the Kurds. The Turkish opposition has made strides in their campaign efforts, but the ruling party still has a chance, especially with reconstruction efforts underway. It is also important to consider the potential impact of alliances and their refusal to approach the Kurds.
The current situation of the political opposition in Turkey is not the same as it was two years ago. The opposition has emerged as a strong rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the upcoming elections, and they have made significant progress within the Turkish public. This progress is evident in their increased support from their traditional base among the electoral constituencies. This success can be attributed in part to the opposition’s ability to overcome their ideological differences and expand political coordination between their factions.
According to estimates, the decision of the People’s Democratic Party to not present a candidate in the upcoming Turkish presidential elections in May indirectly supports the opposition. The opposition has promised to retreat from Erdogan’s policies, particularly regarding the Kurdish issue. Kilicdaroglu, the candidate of the six-party alliance, has promised to solve the Kurdish dilemma. Recent opinion polls conducted by MAK and the “Turkey Raporu” center have revealed that Erdogan’s competitor, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has made progress. The margin of progress ranges between four to nine percentage points.
Noticeable Rise
In the past few months, the Turkish opposition has expanded its presence in the political arena, and this is evident in various indicators. One such indicator is the opposition’s consensus on fielding a single candidate to compete against Erdogan. Despite the leader of the Good Party objecting to the candidacy of Oglo and leaving the Nation Alliance in March, the crisis was short-lived, and Aksener returned to the table.
The successes of the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara in overcoming problems and challenges within their municipalities have also contributed to enhancing a different mental image of the opposition in the Turkish public. These mayors have achieved significant growth rates in various sectors, which has increased public confidence in the opposition.
Furthermore, the Turkish opposition has recently strengthened its presence abroad. They have emphasized their intention, in case of winning the elections, to push for the importance of Ankara’s relations with the European Union and NATO. Additionally, they have pledged to release political prisoners, including Selahattin Demirtaş, the former leader of the People’s Democratic Party, and businessman Osman Kavala. Both individuals were acquitted by the European Court of Human Rights, which considered the charges against them to be malicious.
At the same time, the Turkish opposition has also achieved a noticeable presence among some traditional electoral circles within Turkey. This is especially evident after the leader of the Good Party, Meral Aksener, hosted Uighur Conference Chairman Omar Kanat. During the meeting, Aksener promised to make more efforts to protect the Uighur community from the risks of Chinese persecution.
Interconnected Factors
There are many considerations behind the rise in popularity of the opposition in the Turkish political arena and its chances of success in the upcoming elections. These can be summarized as follows:
1. The Turkish economy’s declining indicators have contributed to the rise of the political opposition in the Turkish street. The government’s failure to overcome the sharp decline in economic indicators and the continued negative repercussions of the Turkish financial crisis have played a significant role in this. Traditional measures adopted by the Justice and Development Party government, such as its mediation in the Ukrainian grain crisis, did not achieve the desired outcome in overcoming the economic crisis. Erdogan’s determination to lower interest rates to stimulate growth led to an increase in the inflation rate to more than 85%. This was compounded by the lira losing nearly a third of its value against the dollar. As a result, foreign investments in the Turkish markets declined, with investors relocating to alternative emerging markets.
2. Government’s response to the Kermanshah earthquake: The impact of the incident on the opposition’s popularity is closely related to the Justice and Development Party’s weak response to the aftermath of the earthquake that struck southern Turkey on February 6th, resulting in over 50,000 deaths and thousands of injuries. The government, including President Erdogan, faced widespread criticism not only from the opposition but also from many sectors of Turkish society for their inadequate response to the disaster and their disregard for warnings from experts about the possibility of a devastating earthquake in southern Turkey. For example, Dutch earthquake expert Frank Hoogerbeets predicted the earthquake three days before it occurred. In addition, a study published last March by Ankara’s Middle East Technical University pointed out that the building patterns used in the neighborhoods of southern Turkish cities, particularly in Gaziantep on the Syrian border, could lead to a massive disaster if there were any seismic vibrations.
Although Erdogan attempted to contain criticism by justifying the government’s failure to respond to scientific assessments and by arresting a number of contractors, engineers, and local officials, the anger of the people in the affected areas remained high.
3. The Justice and Development Party has failed to garner international support for the reconstruction efforts, which has provided fertile ground for opposition to strengthen its political presence and intensify pressure on the ruling authority. President Erdogan and his government’s inability to rally international support, alongside the previous criticisms of the government’s response to the earthquake, have contributed to this situation. Despite Ankara’s need for nearly $104 billion to rehabilitate the affected areas, the donor conference held in Brussels on March 20th was only able to provide modest amounts, not exceeding 7 billion euros for Turkey and Syria. For example, the European Commission only donated one billion euros for reconstruction in Turkey. The head of the United Nations Development Programme in Turkey, Louisa Vinton, expressed disappointment and sadness at the beginning of March due to the donors’ meager generosity. She pointed out that the UN’s emergency call to raise one billion dollars launched on February 16th has only collected about $100 million so far.
In this context, if the ruling coalition fails to fulfill its promises regarding reconstruction, it is likely that the opposition will be able to gain more votes during the upcoming election process in May in the devastated cities. This is especially true since the Turkish president is primarily counting on external support and is aware that the cost of reconstruction exceeds the capacity of the local economy, which is already suffering from a severe crisis.
4. Kurdish Support for the Opposition Against Justice and Development Party Policies: On March 22nd, the Democratic People’s Party announced that it would not nominate a candidate for the upcoming presidential elections. Although the People’s Party is not officially endorsing a candidate from the “Table of Six,” this move is seen as an implicit message of support. The People’s Party is the political wing of the Kurds and the third-largest political party in the country. The co-chair of the Democratic People’s Party, Pervin Buldan, revealed that her party would continue its struggle with the opposition against the policies of the Justice and Development Party. In a recent statement, she said, “Turkey needs reconciliation, not conflict,” and added, “We want to end the Erdogan era.”
The recent decision by the Democratic People’s Party not to nominate a candidate for the upcoming presidential elections is likely to boost the opposition’s chances of winning, given that the Kurdish vote accounts for more than 10% of the total electorate. This poses a challenge for President Erdogan, who has failed to win over the Kurds due to his coalition partner’s nationalist policies and his own hard-line stance towards their demands. The opposition, led by the Republican People’s Party, has promised to address the Kurdish issue and recognize their legitimate rights, which could attract Kurdish support.
In recent years, Erdogan’s support for the Nationalist Movement Party’s policies has led to a stricter nationalist approach towards Kurds in southeastern Turkey and a heavy-handed response to their demands. The Democratic People’s Party’s decision not to endorse a candidate from the “Table of Six” can be seen as an implicit message of support for the opposition’s stance against the Justice and Development Party’s policies. The co-chair of the party, Pervin Buldan, stated that Turkey needs reconciliation, not conflict, and that they want to end the Erdogan era.
5. Ensuring unity among opposition forces: Despite ideological differences between the political factions of the Turkish opposition and the ruling coalition’s hostility towards them, which includes exporting crises to opposition-led local municipalities, the opposition has managed to neutralize their intellectual affiliations and reach an agreement on the importance of returning to a parliamentary system. This agreement has presented a significant opportunity for the Turkish opposition to unify and announce a cohesive plan to contest the upcoming elections.
In a related context, the opposition’s ability to manage their political differences has created a different political scene. Despite the Good Party’s exit from the opposition alliance after their leader objected to the nomination of Kilicdaroglu for the presidency, the alliance was able to swiftly reach an agreement on March 6 to maintain their unity and form a united front against President Erdogan. This has enhanced the opposition’s image among the Turkish public and increased their popularity among voters who have become disillusioned with the ruling party’s policies.
Pressing Challenges
In conclusion, it can be said that there is a favorable environment for the Turkish opposition to increase its presence in the upcoming elections. This is due, in part, to the ruling coalition’s limited ability to overcome the current economic downturn and potential for further crises following the earthquake disaster. However, there are still challenges that pose obstacles for the opposition, including continuing concerns about the coalition’s disintegration, especially after the Good Party expressed dissatisfaction with the recent convergence between the Hexagonal Table and the Kurds.
Furthermore, the announcement of Mahir Injeh’s candidacy for the elections poses a new challenge for the opposition. Injeh has significant support among the traditional bases of the Good Party and the Republican People’s Party, from which he split in 2021 to found the Homeland Party. Unlike the Six-Party Alliance candidate, Injeh is also popular among Turkish youth who are weary of President Erdogan and unconvinced by the elderly Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy.
An important point to note is that if the ruling party succeeds in accelerating the pace of reconstruction, it could lead to a decline in the opposition’s popularity in the affected cities. President Erdogan laid the foundation stone for residential buildings for earthquake victims and four hospitals in the southern province of Hatay on March 24th. Furthermore, the ruling party has succeeded in expanding its electoral alliance by merging with the “Welfare Party” and expanding its understanding with the Kurdish “Huda” Party, which has a significant presence in the southeastern regions of Turkey.