A noteworthy development has arisen of late with ISIS making attempts to recruit new members from various territories across Lebanon. ISIS’s recruitment efforts are not limited to Lebanese youth, but also encompass attempts to expand into Palestinian and Syrian refugee camps. As a response, the Lebanese army announced on March 15th that they had apprehended two individuals of Palestinian and Syrian nationalities who were associated with the organization. Subsequent investigations revealed that the arrested individuals had been in contact with leaders of the organization in Syria with the intention of joining their ranks abroad.

ISIS has been directing its focus towards residents of refugee camps, including Syrians who sought refuge in Lebanon in the wake of the crisis that began in 2011, as well as Palestinians living in camps within Lebanese territory. It is worth noting that this is not the first instance in which ISIS has endeavored to infiltrate these camps. The organization has been utilizing both on-the-ground recruitment efforts and social media to attract new members. Despite efforts to prevent ISIS from operating within these vulnerable areas, the organization has displayed the ability to penetrate them, indicating that there is still much work to be done to combat their influence.

Motivating Factors: 

It can be said that several factors drive ISIS to carry out recruitment and enlistment operations for new members within Lebanese territory. 

1. Compensating for the severe shortage of terrorist resources: Estimates around the number of ISIS members vary between Iraq and Syria. Vladimir Voronkov, the Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations Office of Counterterrorism, estimates the number at around 10,000. However, other estimates suggest a range of 2,000 to 3,000 members. Despite this, it is undeniable that the organization has lost thousands of members since 2017 due to ongoing counter-terrorism operations.

Currently, the organization is attempting to rebuild its capabilities by focusing on recruitment in Lebanon. It aims to recruit Lebanese individuals through refugees in camps scattered throughout the country. These camps are home to thousands of young people capable of carrying weapons and joining the organization’s ranks.

It is worth noting that the organization has previously attempted to form cells and groups of supporters in Lebanon since 2014. In 2016, the Lebanese army arrested Imad Yassin, who was known as the “Emir of ISIS” in the Ein al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp in southern Lebanon. This highlighted the organization’s activity within the refugee camps.

2. Supporting Operations within the Central Command: The aim of recruiting and attracting new members is to form cells and groups within their original countries that are likely to engage in terrorist activity, or to direct them to other countries that have ongoing terrorist activity.

ISIS relies on two patterns to direct its new members. The first pattern involves forming cells within the members’ original countries, regardless of the organization’s transitional goal. The second pattern involves directing some or all the new members to other regions. However, the preference for one pattern over the other depends on several factors, such as the organization’s strategy, the number of new members, and the nature and conditions of their original countries.

In the current stage, where the organization is under severe pressure due to counter-terrorism operations in Iraq and Syria, the priority is to direct the newly recruited members from Lebanon to support its operations in both countries. This is due to the symbolic nature of operational activity, as the organization seeks to support its operations to survive as the “Central Command” of the organization.

The Lebanese army’s recent statement highlights two detainees who were planning to cross the Lebanese border into Syria after being recruited by ISIS leaders in Syria. Dozens of Lebanese youths have flowed into Syria since the summer of 2021, as revealed in January 2022 by the killing of some of them during counter-terrorism operations in Iraq.

3. Increasing ability to recruit within camps: ISIS has a range of motives for recruiting members from Syrian and Palestinian camps, including the spread of extremist ideas among some residents who belong to jihadist Islamic movements. This recruitment process is made easier due to the fluid nature of the jihadist movement, as well as the concentration of thousands in one geographic area, which may support the spread of extremist ideas, specifically the ideological framework of ISIS, which still appears to be attractive to some youth sectors.

Moreover, these camps suffer from a deteriorating standard of living, difficult economic pressures, and a lack of suitable employment opportunities. Residents often complain about the challenging living conditions due to limited financial support from donors.

Lebanese authorities are facing a predicament in controlling and pursuing extremist elements due to the challenges of securing these camps, the involvement of multiple parties in their management, and the spread of weapons within them.

4. The fragility of border security and ease of penetration: The international coalition that was led by the United States to confront ISIS has aimed to limit the influx of loyal organization members from various countries, both within and outside the Middle East, into Iraq and Syria. This was seen as a factor that contributed to the expansion of the organization’s geographical reach in those countries.

Now that ISIS has lost control over the territories it once held in Iraq and Syria, and the transfer of elements from their countries to the organization’s central leadership has become more difficult, it may turn its attention to Lebanon in general and refugee camps in particular. This is due to the fragile security of the borders between Lebanon and Syria, which allows elements to move from inside Lebanon to join its ranks in the operational sphere, as opposed to recruiting and transporting elements from countries outside the geographic range close to Iraq and Syria.

The Lebanese-Syrian borders are known to be susceptible to the proliferation of smuggling gangs that control border points, which the organization may exploit in smuggling its elements. In fact, local media reports in January 2022 suggested that elements from Lebanon joined ISIS by crossing into Syria through the fragile borders with Lebanon.

5. Efforts to form a solid nucleus: ISIS primarily recruits from refugee camps in Lebanon with the intention of directing new members to operational areas in Iraq or Syria. However, the organization may also aim to keep some recruits within Lebanon to establish a solid foundation for future recruitment within the camps. Additionally, ISIS may seek to establish connections with groups outside the camps, indicating its interest in reactivating cells and groups within Lebanon. This is evident from the organization’s deliberate highlighting of the allegiance of some of its members from within Lebanese territory to the new leader of the organization, Abu Al-Hussein Al-Husseini Al-Qurashi, in the weekly newspaper Al-Naba on December 9th of last year. This suggests that ISIS has cells inside Lebanon, even though they have not yet carried out terrorist attacks.

Preventative Steps

The escalating activities of ISIS are exerting significant pressure on Lebanese security authorities and the army to combat the organization’s increasing presence. The group’s activities may transition from recruitment efforts aimed at sending new members to Syria and Iraq to terrorist attacks within Lebanon. Despite this, it is important to note that Lebanon has been on high security alert since the beginning of last year due to the discovery of Lebanese youth joining ISIS in Syria and Iraq in rapid succession. The aim is to take preventative measures to curb the expansion of ISIS activity within Lebanon in the future.