In an interview with CNBC on 24 June, Jordan’s King Abdullah II expressed his keen support for creating a military, NATO-style alliance in the Middle East. He spoke of the possibility of bringing together “like-minded” states, who would each fulfill defined roles within the alliance. He also referenced the Iranian threat, which he had warned of 20 years ago when he spoke of the dangers of a “Shiite Crescent”. The King of Jordan stressed that he is “one of the first people that would endorse a Middle East NATO,” however, the kingdom’s support would be conditional on a mission statement that is “very, very clear. Otherwise, it confuses everybody.”
This idea of establishing an alliance along the lines of NATO in the Middle East triggered a wide debate hours after the Jordanian monarch declared his support for such an alliance. Questions were raised, including: which states are expected to join? will Israel be one of them? what would be the objectives of such a military alliance? Questions were also raised regarding the role to be played in this alliance by the 12 US military bases operating in Jordan.
Moreover, there was a mixed response to the King’s interview in media coverage, both within Jordan, and across the Arab World. Many linked the King’s stance to reports in Israeli and US media that the US intends to integrate the Israeli air defense system with those in a number of Arab countries in order to counter the Iranian threat, as proposed by a bipartisan bill presented to the US Congress. The bill, as reported by the Wall Street Journal, gives the Pentagon 180 days to present a strategy to integrate Israel’s missile defense system with the defense systems of “nine Arab countries”, which are according to the proposed bill: the GCC countries, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt.
It is worth noting that former US Secretary of State, George Pompeo, had called, over three years ago, on 14 February 2019, for the establishment of a regional military alliance, which he dubbed as the “Middle East Strategic Alliance” (MESA). The Trump administration’s proposal sought to bring together GCC countries, as well as Jordan, Egypt and the US in a regional military alliance. And while some perceive this renewed focus on the establishment of a Middle East NATO as linked to the upcoming visit of US President Joe Biden to Saudi Arabia in mid-July, to attend a summit attended by a number of Arab leaders, others view this as primarily directed against Iran, through “integrating Israel as a military force” in the region.
It can be argued that the declaration by the Jordanian monarch of his support for the establishment of a “military alliance” days before President Biden’s visit to the region, is linked to a number of political and security considerations, including:
Concern over Iran. This is not the first time King Abdullah has expressed concerns over his perception of an Iranian threat. In an interview with CNN last year, he spoke about attacks on Jordan by Iranian manufactured drones. Last May, he alluded to a possible military escalation on Syria’s border with Jordan, due to the growing number of militants deployed to the area by Iranian militias, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the militia of Abu Fadl al-Abbas, and the Fatemiyoun Brigade.
Geopolitical turbulence. The Middle East is witnessing transformations that have led to the escalation of existing threats, as well as the emergence of new ones. Concerns regarding these geopolitical shifts may be behind King Abdullah II’s call for a military alliance, which comes in tandem with a flurry of regional consultations and meetings in the last few months, focused to a great degree on security concerns.
Strategic challenges. Many Arab countries, including Jordan, are currently facing significant challenges to their security, from regional forces intent on expanding their influence, that they cannot confront with individual resources. Jordan’s call appears to be an attempt to address these challenges, by changing the rules of the game, particularly after Tehran ignored Amman’s warnings in recent months urging Iranian militia to move away from Jordan’s border.
However, regardless of the motivations behind Jordan’s proposal, there are a number of structural impediments to the establishment of such an alliance in the Middle East, including:
A history of failed regional alliances. The historical record reveals the repeated failure of attempts to form security or military alliances in the region, starting with attempts to form the Baghdad Alliance in the 1950s, and up to the current proposal.
Regional polarization. The establishment of a “Middle Eastern NATO” or an “Arab-Israeli NATO”, will only serve to the state of polarization in the region, and will further divide it along sectarian lines. This will have seriously adverse consequences for the whole region. It will place all Arab Shiites, along with Syria and Iraq who are under Iranian influence, in the crossfire of the confrontation provoked by this alliance. This will further complicate the regional landscape, potentially propelling it towards the abyss.
Lack of consensus regarding Iran. There is no consensus in the Arab World, or the among Gulf countries, on the need for a Confrontation with Iran, especially militarily. Nor is there a consensus on establishing military or security cooperation with Israel. Moreover, Iraq has been making efforts to bring Saudi Arabia and Iran closer together. In addition, some countries supposedly to be included in this alliance have fundamental reserves about a comprehensive military cooperation that targets one specific state. They also have concerns regarding exposing their military and strategic systems to other member states.
For example, there is deeply entrenched Iranian influence in Iraq, making it difficult for it to participate in such an alliance. Egypt’s armed forces are firmly anchored in their own independent military doctrine of historically refusing to join military alliances.
Taking into consideration the security motives of Jordan’s call for the establishment of a Middle East alliance on the one hand, and the structural impediments to the formation of such an alliance on the other, the Jordanian Monarch’s statements could be interpreted as stressing the need for Arab regional cooperation. Such cooperation would be necessary to fill the vacuum created by reduced US engagement in the region and Russian preoccupation with the war in Ukraine, at a time when China is becoming interested in competing for political and military roles in the Middle East.
Therefore, King Abdullah’s reference to an inclination among several Arab states to assist each other “in the face of common challenges”, would suggest that they prefer to cooperate among themselves, in an Arab arrangement that would be able to flexibly deal with the regional rivalries and tensions between Israel, Turkey and Iran. While the idea of a regional NATO has been suggested several times, it has never been properly articulated, which suggests that the current proposal may not come to fruition either, at least in the near future. There are still conflicting visions and stances, among the Arab countries themselves, even regarding the objectives of such an alliance, as well as who would be invited to join.