In the context of tensions with Greece, Turkiye ended, on June 9th, military exercises with the participation of 37 countries. The EFES 2022 exercises, held in the city of Izmir which overlooks the Aegean Sea, with the participation of 10,000 Turkish soldiers, involved maneuvers with live ammunition from warships, submarines, naval landing ships, drones, helicopters, and fighter jets. The exercises followed Turkish accusations to Greece of “weaponizing” Islands in the Aegean Sea, in violation of the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne and the 1947 Paris Treaty. Following a decision to cancel cooperation between the two countries, the Turkish President warned Greece in a speech that these “actions and ambitions will only lead to regret”.
On its part, Greece viewed the military exercises in the Aegean Sea a “direct threat” and raised the alarms that Turkey may be looking to occupy the Greek islands near the Turkish coast. Greece is justifying the militarization of the islands as a response to what it perceives as the threat posed by Turkiye, and the fact that the Turkish Air Force has violated Greek airspace more than once over the past few months. The Turkish military exercises may be said to have several objectives, including:
Retaliating for Greece’s militarization of the Aegean Islands: Greece has lately deployed troops in the disputed Aegean islands, indicating that the move was a response to the deployment of Turkish military units, ships, and planes to the Turkish coastal lines facing Greece, raising the specter of Turkey’s occupation of part of Cyprus in 1974. In response to Turkish protests and warnings regarding Greek military presence in the Aegean islands, the Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs released maps dating to 1923, which it argued support Greece’s claims regarding its right to respond to any military movements by Turkey in the Aegean Sea.
In this context, the Turkish military exercises carry a direct message to Greece, that Turkey is capable of retaliating, and that many regional and international allies support Turkey’s rights in the Aegean Sea, as evidenced by the participation of 37 countries in the military exercise. It was noteworthy that, following the end of the exercises, Turkey’s Minister of Foreign Affairs declared that Greece has violated the conditions regarding the disarmed status of the islands of the Aegean Sea, and that if it did not correct this transgression, its sovereignty over the islands will be in question.
Demonstrating Turkey’s possession of advanced military technologies: One of the objectives of holding this military exercise in the Aegean Sea is to demonstrate the advanced military technologies and vast arsenal that the Turkish army possesses. This explains the wide coverage in the Turkish media of the various maneuvers with live ammunition conducted by the navy and military forces during these exercises, in addition to highlighting operations by the air force and Turkish made drones, missiles and other weaponry.
Influencing the stances of pro-Greece powers: Turkey accuses a number of international powers of supporting Greece regarding the contested Aegean Sea Islands, especially the United States, France, and Germany. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused the West of sending weapons, planes, and helicopters to aid the Greeks. He also accused the United States of succumbing to Greek pressure, referring to the blocking of the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkiye, which he attributed to pressure from the Greek Prime Minister, during a trip to Washington last May. The Greek Prime Minister also asked Congress to take the situation in the Aegean Sea into consideration when reviewing any potential future arms sales to Turkey.
Protecting Potential Investments in the Aegean and Black Seas: It has been reported that Turkiye is planning to invest up to $10 Billion in exploring for gas reserves in the Aegean and Black Seas, especially after gas was discovered in the Black Sea in 2020. Last January the Turkish Oil company “TPAO” successfully completed a natural gas flow test in “Turkali-1” located in the Sakarya natural gas field in the Black Sea. Also, the Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Fatih Donmez announced in December 2021 that the Fateh ship will begin exploration of natural gas in Turkali 7, in the Black Sea, as well as sending other ship to explore gas in the Aegean Sea.
The demonstration of Turkish military power in these latest exercises, especially in contested areas, is therefore intended to show it can protects its investments, and to intimidate competitors, such as Cyprus and Greece, who have equal ambitions regarding the natural resources in this region.
Possible consequences
Military activities in the Aegean area as a whole will have a number of consequences, including:
Militarization of the Greece Crisis: The military maneuvers have led to increasingly tense rhetoric, and mutual accusations between Turkiye and Greece. On June 9th spokesman for the Greek government Yiannis Economou called on Turkey to halt provocative tactics, declaring that the only way to progress is through communication that is responsible and honest. On his part, the Turkish President attacked the Greek government in a statement on the eve of the end of the EFES 2022, saying “the islands must be disarmed. I am not joking”.
The failure of dialogue between Greece and Turkiye, and the cancellation by the Turkish President of the meeting of the High-Level Strategic Council between the two countries, could lead both countries to raise their military defense capabilities. This explains Greece’s concerted efforts lately to develop its military cooperation with the United States (who has 9 military bases in Greece), as well as with France. Turkiye, on its part, is focusing on developing its military defense industry, and engaging in repeated military exercises as a form of deterrent against any opponents, especially Greece.
Rising costs of defense in the region: The breakdown of negotiations between Greece and Turkey, and the increase in military defense operations and exercises in the Aegean Sea will impose higher defense costs on other countries in the region. Rising tensions are likely to lead to a changed regional security architecture. For example, Greece signed last September a defense pact with France, that will allow it to acquire French frigates. Cyprus in turn has sought to improve its military arsenal by signing defense agreements with the United States last year.
Enhancing President Erdogan’s chances in the polls: The military exercises and operations in the Aegean Sea and the tensions with Greece may serve to increase domestic political support for President Erdogan, which has been waning due to a declining economy and worsening living conditions. The EFES 2022 exercises, and strong stance against Greek moves may serve as a boost to his support before the upcoming presidential elections in 2023.
Although the various forms of escalation between Turkiye and Greece, especially the cancelation of dialogue, are ominous, both countries at the same time have incentives to prevent tensions from getting out of hand, especially as they are facing difficult conditions economically. Moreover, Western powers have no wish to witness the outbreak of a new conflict in the region, as the repercussions of the Ukrainian crisis have proved damaging to the West and the world as a whole.