Turkey has revealed its support for Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, known as Faramajo – whose term as president ended almost a year ago- in the context of his conflict with Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Robley. The president sought to suspend the prime minister last December, accusing him of disrupting the elections and serving his personal agenda and those of his allies. Turkey is seeking to ensure Farmajo’s survival through the election process, as he is loyal to Ankara, and this would allow the latter to protect its interests and ensure the implementation of agreements signed between the two countries over the past few years. Turkey is opposed to Robley because of his close relationship with the United States, England, and Egypt. Many questions have been raised regarding Turkey’s position in the Somali crisis, its objectives, and the consequences on Turkey’s interests in Somalia.
Bold Moves
Turkey is taking steps to secure President Farmajo’s position. Turkey considers Farmajo and his proponents as a strong ally, and it has provided him with military support. This in return has given Farmajo confidence that he can remove Robley, his strongest political opponent, from the political scene, and deny him the chance to assume power. Turkey is currently providing intense training support to the Somalian military and has provided it with its first shipment of drones in December 2021. There is also a bilateral agreement to create and train a Somali battalion on the use of these drones. Turkish drones are regarded as a trump card for Farmajo, in the event he decides to use military force to gain a decisive victor over the Prime Minister.
This is not the first instance of Turkish military support. In March 2021, Turkey built military barracks in the capital Mogadishu, as part of the restructuring of the Somali military. Also, in August 2021 Turkey provided the Somali military with 22 armored tanks to help maintain security and stability after the African Union Mission in Somalia decided to withdraw from the country.
Turkey has also provided financial support to the Farmajo regime. In August 2021, the Turkish President announced $30 million of aid to Somalia, along with a $2.5 million in the form of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) pledged in July 2021, to help the country overcome its financial crisis, which has been exacerbated by economic stagnation and the Covid-19 pandemic.
Turkey has been successful in advancing its economic relationship with Somalia and solidifying its investments in numerous sectors of the state. Trade between the two countries by the end of 2018 reached $200 million, and with Farmajo’s support, Turkish companies have signed a deal with the Somalian government to revamp the Port of Mogadishu. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan revealed in February 2020 that the two countries were in talks regarding oil exploration in Somali waters, and that there was an offer from Somalia to undertake this task, as it has done off the coast of Libya.
Moreover, Turkey has used its soft power to deepen its presence in Somalia. The Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA) provides Somalia with special assistance in the field of development and social projects. Turkey built a hospital in the country, and reconstructed Adam Uday International Airport in the capital.
Various Considerations
Turkey has several objectives to achieve in Somalia, including:
Securing Military Presence: Turkish support for the Somalian president is linked to it’s the objective of maintaining from its military presence in Somalia. Turkey’s second largest military base outside its borders is based in Somalia near the Mogadishu airport. The base includes three military schools, storehouses for weapons and ammunition, and barracks for military personnel. In light of opposition to this Turkish military presence from several Somali political factions, and armed opposition groups, especially Al-Shabab Al Mujahideen,a fall of Farmajo from power would put Turkish interests at risk, and would block its way to increasing its influence in the Somali army.
Balancing against other International and Regional Actors: Turkey is not the only foreign actor in Somalia, and it is aware that several other countries seek to establish their regional influence and solidify their position in Somalia by influencing the upcoming election, and that these countries lean towards supporting the prime minister. Turkey therefore believes that it is important to support Farmajo in order to prevent Somalia from falling under the sway of its international and regional competitors. Turkey’s concerns increased after Cairo hosted Somali Prime Minister Robley last August, as he sought to rebalance Somalia’s regional relations, and to build s new alliances that would balance Turkish influence in the country.
Turkey was also disturbed by the support the Prime Minister is receiving from international forces. Western powers, who have reservations concerning Turkish influence, sent clear messages of support to Robley following the suspension of his authority. Representatives of the international community commended Robley’s efforts to speed up the elections, and his attempts to make them transparent and legitimate; Both the US and British Embassy in Mogadishu urged the Somali President to take immediate steps to defuse tensions, refrain from provocative actions and avoid violence. Both emphasized their support for holding the elections and opposed any attempts to disrupt them.
On December 27, 2021, the US State Department’s Africa Office warned that Washington was ready to act in the face of those who obstruct Somalia’s path to peace and considered that the attempt to suspend Robley’s duties is worrying. It emphasized Washington’s support for Robley’s efforts to hold fast and legitimate elections.
Controlling Sea Ports: Controlling the seaports remains one of the most significant reasons of Turkey’s interest in Somalia, and it has sought to strengthen its presence on the coasts of the Rea Sea and Indian Ocean. Turkey established a military naval on Somalia’s Indian Ocean coast in 2017. This garnered praise from President Farmajo, who also fostered growing Turkish presence in other Somali ports. Farmajo’s continued hold on power would therefore support Turkey’s objectives in maintaining an active presence on the coasts of the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. This will allow Turkey to achieve economic and strategic gains in Africa and the Middle East.
Expanding Turkish Influence to the Horn of Africa: Turkey prioritizes Somalia due to its proximity to the Horn of Africa, where it seeks to compete with other regional powers who are also interested in the region. Its support for the Somali president allowed Turkey a foothold in that region, through which it made trade and investment gains. Farmajo also furthered cooperation between Turkey and Ethiopia, and the latter bolstered Turkey’s presence in the Horn of Africa, allowing it to exert pressure on other countries, especially Egypt, France, the United States and Iran.
It can be argued that Turkish support towards President Farmajo in his conflict with Somali Prime Minister Robley is in essence inseparable from Turkey’s desire to balance the influence of its regional and international competitors, and to protect its interests in the Horn of Africa, for which Somalia is a vital launching point.